Lithium carbonate prices in top consumer China could fall by more than 30% this year from the current level, analysts say, as growing supply from all major producers outpaces the rise in demand from battery users.

The spot price of lithium carbonate hit a more than two-year low at beginning 2024, and is likely to drop to as low as 80,000 yuan this year as global supply continues to rise, said four China-based analysts. One of them expects the price to hit 100,000 yuan by end of this year. Prices outside China tend to follow a similar trend. 

The price plunge will hit high-cost lithium producers, but offer some support to a slowing EV sector. China produces about 70% of the world’s batteries and over half of its EVs.

Domestic EV car sales are forecast to grow 25% to 9.44 million units in 2024, slowing from annual growth of 31% and 89% in 2023 and 2022 respectively, CITIC Futures said last month.